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iSuppli is not afraid to face the truth
If anyone remembers, this year began with uncertainty – throughout the first half of the year, analysts were wondering how events would develop, and in which direction the market development trends would go – up or down. The incidents of several weeks, which caused, in particular, the rise in energy prices, forced iSuppli to change its forecast for the development of the semiconductor chip market this year.
Revenue and Growth Forecast Compared to Previous Years
Semiconductor chip sales to grow to 232.7 billion in 2021, analysts forecast new. dollars, which is 2.4% more than in 2021, but in 2021 growth will accelerate somewhat – to 4.3% and 242.8 billion. dollars, respectively. ISuppli previously predicted a 5.9% increase in semiconductor sales in 2021 and a 3.9% ? in 2021. In both versions of the forecast, significant growth of the industry is not expected earlier than 2021 – only after 2021 the change in sales volumes will exceed 10% in the positive direction. By the way, since iSuppli calculates sales in US dollars, the annual growth of 2-4%, most likely, in fact, testifies to the negative dynamics of market development, i.e. to. US currency devalues at a faster pace.
One way or another, yet another source of uncertainty is associated with the United States – all the consequences of Hurricane Katrina, in this case, on the IT industry, have not yet been taken into account, just as there is no data on the negative effect that the recent typhoon had on Japan.
iSuppli notes that while semiconductor chip makers continue to ramp up production despite rising transportation costs that could offset seasonal demand growth, this in turn is keeping prices from rising. The productivity of semiconductor plants, according to analysts, in the third quarter will grow by 3.1% compared to the second, and the workload of production lines will grow from 83% to 86%.
With disaster accounting still pending and global energy market prospects dim, iSuppli is set to release data and outlook in the third quarter, taking into account trade surplus stocks that had a detrimental effect on the industry earlier this year.