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SIA, iSuppli, Gartner and Semico have no doubts about a bright future

It is curious to note that the sharp rise in energy prices and past natural disasters did not have a serious impact on the semiconductor industry and leading analytical firms are confident in a bright future. Continuing to adjust their forecasts for the current and coming years, analysts from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association) increased their forecast for the growth of the semiconductor chip market this year, but reduced it for 2021 and 2021. So, this year it is expected to sell 227.6 billion semiconductors. dollars, which is 6.8% more than last year, in 2021 – 245.5 billion. dollars (+ 7.9%), in 2021 – 271.3 billion. dollars (+ 10.5%) and in 2021 – 309.2 billion. dollars (+ 13.9%).

In its previous forecast, published in June, SIA expected a slightly different development of events: 226 billion. dollars this year (+ 6%), 246 billion. dollars in 2021 (+ 8.8%), 273 billion. dollars in 2021 (+ 11%) and 309 billion. in 2021 (+ 13.2%).

The data contained in the latest SIA forecast is in line with the WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics) forecast published in October. There are, however, analysts who disagree with this opinion, for example, iSuppli predicts a sales volume of 232.7 billion. dollars in this and 242.8 billion. dollars next year. In this sense, Gartner’s forecast is closer to iSuppli’s forecast, but even more optimistic – 235 billion. dollars.

At the same time, usually skeptical, Semico Research backed iSuppli and WSTS with a forecast of 221.6 billion. dollars in 2021, which corresponds to an increase of 4% – this is twice the growth rate compared to the previous forecast. In the next year, Semico expects even greater growth – up to 262.1 billion (+ 18.2%).

SIA believes that the fastest growing segments of the electronics market in 2021 will be personal computers (PCs, shipments are expected to grow by 10%), cell phones (shipments growth – 13%), digital cameras (shipments growth – 9%), digital television receivers (supply growth – 52%) and MP3 players (supply growth – 52%). At the same time, the forecast for 2021 assumes a faster growth in sales of microprocessors than PCs – this is due to an increase in the share of laptops in which processors with a higher weighted average price are used.

Well, the growth in demand for digital cameras, in turn, stimulates growth in flash memory sales – it is expected to be about 15.9%. At the same time, sales of NAND flash memory used in MP3 players, portable drives and digital cameras should grow by 23.5%, and NOR flash memory – by only 6.1%, which is caused by the gradual displacement of this type of memory from its ancestral domain (mobile phones) dynamic memory (DRAM) and NAND flash memory.

But the growth in sales of mobile phones should have a positive effect on the growth of shipments of digital signal processors (DSP) – about 17.2%. Only DRAM is out of luck, sales of which will decline by 10.1% in 2021.

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