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Semico: not everything is as bad as it seems

Just two weeks ago, analysts, and not only North American ones, were unanimous in their skepticism about the future of the semiconductor industry. But Semico Research, unexpectedly for everyone, decided that there was enough pessimism and reported a positive forecast for the development of the semiconductor microcircuits market for the next two years.

So, Semico predicts that in 2021 sales of semiconductor chips will grow by 4% compared to 2021 to 221.6 billion. dollars. Previously, Semico was more pessimistic, predicting only 2% growth.

Further – even more amazing. In 2021, the company expects even greater growth – 18.2% to 262.1%, which is double the previous forecast of analysts. But for the years that follow 2021, Semico gives a reduced forecast – instead of 19.8% in 2021 and 18.1% in 2021, the company expects growth to 308.7 billion. dollars (17.8%) and up to 356.3 billion. dollars (15.4%), respectively. The inevitable cycle of recession will begin later in the second half of 2021 and in 2021 sales will decline to 346.3%, which will be 2.8% lower than the expected indicators of 2021.

How did Semico suddenly go from the category of inveterate pessimists to incorrigible pessimists?? After all, both Gartner and iSuppli, noting the impact of rising energy prices, believe the future of the semiconductor industry will be bleak.

Semico does not deny that the impact of oil and gas prices, as well as natural disasters, may be strong, but not on the PC and cell phone markets, which continue to grow.

According to Semico, semiconductor manufacturers have only one hope – for the emergence of a new boom (“killer application”), for which media hubs are predicted to be candidates. The media hub can be of one of three types – based on a PC (under Windows XP MCE), based on a stand-alone set-top box (video or game), or based on a separate device connected to a PC by a local network. All three types of media hubs are united by their functionality – they are able to receive (TV, video-on-demand, LAN), process content and play the role of a multimedia server in a home digital network.

Semico’s point of view was supported by National Semiconductor, which manufactures solutions for such media hubs. Well, who knows, maybe it’s not all as bad as it seems?

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